Difference between revisions of "Talk:Radiation shielding suit"

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(leaking suit probabilities)
 
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Revision as of 01:03, 12 August 2008

I think that the low probability of two "leaky seconds" during a suit's lifetime (which I have certainly observed in tests) must be due to the "random" number generation, not simple statistics.  Consider:
The probability of no leaks at all is (250/256)60 ≈ 0.24099 .
The probability of exactly one leak is [60! ÷ (1!)(59!)] × (6/256) × (250/256)59 ≈ 0.34703 .
Therefore, the probability of two or more leaks in 60 seconds is about 1 - 0.24099 - 0.34703 = 0.41198.  Not overwhelming, but it would be much too large to disregard if the "dice" were truly balanced.    Ryan W 11:56, 2 Oct 2005 (UTC)